SeedFi — Merchant Q2 2026 Loan Analysis

01 · Glossary & Definitions

How to read this report.

These definitions apply consistently throughout every slide in this deck.
Note — this data was spooled as at 1st July 2026.

Quality tiers

Best

0% Overdue

Loans repaying on time. Safe to grow.

Mid Risk

Some overdue

Some overdue loans but manageable. Monitor closely.

High Risk

Significant overdue

Escalate collections, restrict new loans.

Critical

Very high / 100%

No new loans until resolved.

Key terms

Overdue Rate

% of loans that have missed at least one repayment. Higher = more risk.

Collection Efficiency

Amount collected ÷ amount expected. 100% = fully on track.

NPL

Non-Performing Loan — 90+ days overdue. Directly impacts portfolio health.

Concentration Risk

One merchant holding a disproportionately large share of the book.

Momentum

Comparison of disbursed amount between Q1 and Q2.

02 · Merchant Personas

Who's in the book?

Just like borrowers have credit profiles, merchants have performance patterns. These 4 types cover every merchant in the Q2 book. DPD = Days Past Due. Personas derived from default rate, volume trend, and Q1→Q2 momentum — merchants may shift persona between quarters.

03 · Executive Summary

Q2 2026, full quarter at a glance.

Q2 = April 1 – June 30, 2026 (full 90-day quarter). Q1 = Jan–Mar 2026. All figures based on actual Q2 2026 data. A total of ₦564M was disbursed, representing a -17% decrease compared to Q1 (₦683M).

₦564M

Total Q2 disbursed

91%

Of book at-risk

Repayment problems across the book

14

Active merchants

The book

14

Active merchants

disbursed in Q2

113

Total Q2 loans

Apr – Jun 2026

₦165.5M

Clean portfolio

had 0% overdue loans

₦20.1M

At risk right now

2 merchants (Yalo & Winich), 100% default

The tension

46%

1 merchant = PayHippo

of entire Q2 loan volume

682%

Tramango growth

₦5M Q1 → ₦39.1M Q2 (new entrant)

2

Merchants at 100%

Yalo & Winich have one overdue loan each

₦342M

Q1 Giants Lost

Synafare + Yalo + Arry Moore made up Q1 mass volume

→

The headline: the book shrank and shifted composition — new merchants are entering while Q1's biggest names have gone quiet, and quality signals are mixed across the remaining book.

04 · Where The Money Went

Q2 disbursement, by merchant.

Bar values = ₦M disbursed. Colour = quality: green = 0% default, amber = moderate risk, red = high/critical risk.

0% default — safe

Moderate risk

High / Critical risk

05 · Merchant Health Scorecard

One view, every merchant.

Momentum speaks to the growth of disbursement from Q1. Each red cell is a decision waiting to be made.
🟢 Healthy · 🟡 Watch · 🔴 Close Monitoring

Merchant	Q1 Volume	Q2 Volume	Overdue %	Approval %	Momentum	Status	Action items
PayHippo	₦252M	₦259M ▲	28.5%	100%	Growing	Watch	Monitor 8 overdue loans. Early risk signal.
MyEazipay	₦45.0M	₦48.9M ▼	0%	100%	Growing	Close monitoring	Growth has been clean so far.
Nerho	₦30.4M	₦54.4M ▲	15%	80.0%	Growing	Close monitoring	Monitor. 15% loans overdue.
Tramango	₦5.0M	₦39.1M ▲	87.5%	76.9%	New	Close monitoring	Close monitoring needed. 87.5% of loans overdue.
Yalo	₦111.1M	₦20.0M ▼	100%	100%	Collapsed	Close monitoring	Close monitoring needed. Yalo has only one loan and it's overdue.
Uwana	₦0.0M	₦26.1M →	33.3%	100%	Growing	Close monitoring	New merchant showing early overdue risk. Monitor closely.
SunFi	₦0.0M	₦21.2M →	0%	57.1%	Growing	Healthy	0% default. Clean repayment so far.
Synafare	₦231.5M	₦36.3M ▼	0%	100%	Collapsed	Healthy	0% default now. Was ₦414M in Q1.
SCIAN	₦5.9M	₦5.5M ▼	0%	100%	Declining	Watch	Monitor 2 overdue loans. Quality improved sharply.

The 3 signals that matter to Product

Signal 1 — Concentration Risk

We are one merchant away from a bad quarter. PayHippo = 46% of Q2 volume (₦259M of ₦564M). If PayHippo slows or deteriorates, no other clean merchant can cover the gap — Nerho is next biggest at ₦54M. Distribution of facilities to eligible, clean merchants should be a diversification priority.

Signal 2 — Clean Growth, Untapped

₦165M in clean merchant capacity is deployed. Another ₦150M+ is within reach. Nerho grew steadily with only 15% overdue; Synafare remains 0% default despite its Q1 collapse. Combined, these could reach ₦150M+ in Q3 if limits are raised — is there a ceiling stopping this, or a relationship management gap?

Signal 3 — Filtering For Quality

Uwana and Winich entered Q2 and already show default issues. Uwana: 33.3% default (3/9 loans). Winich: 100% default. Repayment capacity needs to be assessed before disbursement, again.

06 · The Q1 Giants

₦342M that disappeared.

Combined: ₦342.6M in Q1 → ₦20.0M in Q2. A 94% collapse. These were not small merchants having a slow quarter — they were the backbone of Q1. Their Q2 absence has no data explanation.

Synafare

Q1 ₦231.5M

Q2 ₦0.0M

-100%

No loans disbursed in Q2 — complete drop-off, not a quality issue. Was #1 Q1 merchant at ₦231.5M.

Yalo

Q1 ₦111.1M

Q2 ₦20.0M

-81.8%

Only 1 loan recorded in Q2 — and it's overdue (100% default). Down from 32 in Q1. Both volume and quality collapsed.

07 · What Bad Merchants Actually Cost Us

Every defaulted naira costs more than itself.

Every naira in a defaulted loan is not just lost revenue — it's underwriting cost, servicing cost, and collections cost stacked on top.

₦20.0M

100% default merchant

Deployed to Yalo

₦379.1M more

In partial-default loans

Nerho 11% · Tramango 88% · Uwana 33% · PayHippo 29%

₦399.1M

Total at-risk

= 70.8% of the Q2 book (merchants ≥₦5M only)

How the at-risk book breaks down

Merchant	Q2 Volume	Loans	Overdue	Default %	What this means for collections
Nerho	₦54.4M	26	4/26	15.4%	Mid risk — 4 of 26 overdue. Monitor closely.
PayHippo	₦259.3M	28	8/28	28.6%	8 loans overdue — monitor. Early warning signal.
Tramango	₦39.1M	8	7/8	87.5%	7 of 8 loans overdue. Halt & review.
Uwana	₦26.2M	9	3/9	33.3%	New merchant showing early overdue risk.

08 · Who Is Defaulting Most?

Breaking down the risk.

Fintech leads sector risk at 40.4% of overdue. Travel Tech follows at 31.6%. ₦2M–10M loans are the highest-risk ticket size (59.0%). No loans are Lost or Doubtful — full recovery still possible.
Watchlist: <30 days overdue · Substandard: 30–180 days · Doubtful: 181–359 days · Lost: >360 days

By sector

Fintech

40.4%

Travel Tech

31.6%

Real Estate

12.3%

Energy

10.5%

Agriculture

5.3%

By loan ticket size

₦10M+

14.8%

₦2M–10M

59.0%

₦500K–2M

26.2%

Under ₦500K

0%

By merchant age

0–3 months

0%

4–6 months

10.1%

7–12 months

30.4%

12+ months

59.4%

By loan classification

Watchlist

76.8%

Substandard

23.2%

Doubtful

0%

Lost

0%

→

Read: no loans are classified Lost or Doubtful yet — everything at risk today is still in the Watchlist/Substandard band, meaning full recovery is still on the table if Product acts now.

09 · The Growth Opportunity

It's already here.

These merchants don't need new acquisition. They are active, clean, and underutilised. The work is account management, not marketing. Clean merchants' combined Q2 volume: ₦164.5M — 0% default across all four. Meaningful headroom for Q3 growth; exact targets pending product input.

Nerho

₦54.4M

Growth: Clean · Default 0%

4 loans, 0% default. Clean record — exactly the profile the book needs more of.

→ Full onboarding. Raise ceiling.

SunFi

₦21.2M

Growth: +Recovery · Default 0%

Explosive growth from near-zero Q1 (₦2K) to ₦88.8M Q2. 0% default across 3 loans. Best growth performer in Q2.

→ Raise ceiling. Investigate Q1 constraint.

MyEazipay

₦48.9M

Growth: +9% · Default 0%

11 loans, 0% default — a major turnaround from prior collections concerns. Now the cleanest large merchant in the book.

→ Re-evaluate collections status. Raise ceiling.

SCIAN

₦5.6M

Growth: -6% · Default 0%

7 loans, 0% default, steady volume (₦5.9M Q1 → ₦5.6M Q2). Smaller book but consistently clean.

→ Maintain. Modest growth potential.

→

SunFi, Nerho, MyEazipay and SCIAN growing modestly in Q3 could yield a meaningful clean-volume gain.

Q3 2026 forecast: bottom-up by merchant

Method: bottom-up per-merchant forecast. Each merchant assigned a rate based on Q2 trajectory and quality status.

Merchant	Q2 Volume	Status	Rate applied	Q3 Forecast	Basis
PayHippo	₦259.3M	Flat	0% growth cap	₦259.3M	28.6% overdue. Capped due to concentration risk.
Tramango	₦39.1M	Halted	Suspended	₦0	87.5% overdue, ₦0 collected. Halt — no new loans.
Uwana	₦26.2M	Watch	0% growth cap	₦26.2M	New merchant, 33% overdue. Cap growth, monitor closely.
Yalo	₦20.0M	Halted	Suspended	₦0	Only loan in Q2 is 100% overdue. Halt until resolved.
Nerho	₦54.4M	Watch	0% growth cap	₦54.4M	15.4% overdue — mid risk, growing. Monitor, not halt.
MyEazipay	₦48.9M	Clean/Grow	Moderate +15%	₦56.2M	0% default — clean. Raise ceiling, no longer at-risk.
FundMe	₦88.8M	Clean/Grow	Moderate +10%	₦97.6M	0% default. Explosive growth from near-zero Q1. Best growth performer in Q2.
SCIAN	₦5.6M	Clean	Moderate +15%	₦6.4M	0% default. Small, steady, consistently clean book.
SunFi	₦21.3M	Clean	Moderate +15%	₦24.5M	0% default. Clean start — raise ceiling cautiously.
Others	₦1.1M	Various	Mixed	₦1.1M	Winich (halted, ₦0.1M, 100% default) + Arry Moore ₦0.5M + Wastebanc ₦0.1M + others, all under ₦5M individually.

₦525.7M

Q3 forecast total (±15%)

-6.9%

vs Q2's ₦564.7M

driven by halting Tramango & Yalo

2

Merchants halted

Tramango, Yalo

10 · What Improved vs. What Got Worse

Q1 → Q2, the honest scorecard.

Q1 = Jan–Mar 2026. Q2 = Apr–Jun 2026. Both full 90-day quarters.

What improved ↑

FundMe grew 149% with only 10% overdue₦63.9M Q1 → ₦159M Q2, 10 loans. Best volume growth in Q2 — 1 overdue loan, manageable.

SunFi has a clean record of repayments₦38.9M in disbursement, 8 loans, 0% default. Clean slate despite prior struggles.

9 merchants maintaining 0% defaultSunFi, Synafare, Arry Moore, Ilowa, Entrepreneur, Buy Power, Wastebanc, ALTBOX & Serawad all held 0% default.

SCIAN quality improved sharplyDefault rate now 22.2% (4/18 loans), down from being one of the worst performers. Now Mid Risk, no longer Critical.

What got worse ↓

4 merchants hit 100% or near-100% defaultYalo, Winich at 100%. Nerho 97%, Tramango 90% also critical. ₦816.1M at risk.

Q1 giants collapsed 92%Synafare, Yalo, Arry Moore combined: ₦342M Q1 → ₦51.1M Q2. No recovery signal.

Concentration worsenedPayHippo now 37.1% of Q2 book (₦333.8M). Synafare was 30% of Q1 — concentration risk continues.

2 new merchants show early default riskUwana (33.3% default, 3/9 loans) and Winich (100%, 3/3 loans) entered Q2 with early default issues. Onboarding gap.

→

Net assessment: the book composition shifted materially — Q1's giants went quiet, new entrants filled the gap. Q3 priority: halt Tramango & Yalo; unlock MyEazipay, FundMe & SCIAN.

11 · What Should Change

4 decisions for Product.

These are not monitoring tasks. Each one is a product or process decision that requires an owner and a deadline.

01

Halt disbursements to 3 merchants immediately

Priority: High

Tramango (87.5%), Yalo (100%), and Winich (100%) have critical default rates. Every new naira deepens the loss. This is a product access decision — who can block a merchant in the system, and how fast?

→ Owner: Product + Risk. Cut off disbursement access this week.

02

Increase the limit ceiling on MyEazipay and SCIAN

Quick Win

Both show clean repayment and available demand. Data supports it, and the risk is minimal compared to deploying into halted merchants. MyEazipay (₦48.9M) and SCIAN (₦5.6M) are confirmed clean.

→ Raise both ceilings now.

03

Add a quality gate to the onboarding flow

Priority: Medium-High

Uwana and Winich passed onboarding and already show default issues. There is no solid repayment-capacity check for merchants at the moment. Before first disbursement: verify traceable cash flows, B2B revenue model, or 6–12 months operating history.

→ Owner: Product + Credit. Ship the 3-point screen before next onboarding.

04

Urgently investigate the 2 silent Q1 giants

Priority: Medium

Synafare and Yalo collectively did ₦342.6M in Q1 and ₦20.0M in Q2 — a 94% collapse. No data explains this at the moment. An assessment needs to be made with key stakeholders on what the data is not showing.

→ Owner: BD + Product. Direct outreach to both accounts this month.

12 · Recommendation: Expand Into Renewable Energy

Why energy merchants repay.

Three traits — digital, B2B, inventory-tied — predict repayment. They explain why Synafare has stayed best-quality (0% default) even as its volume collapsed. Uwana, the other energy entrant, now shows early overdue signs worth a closer look.

Why energy merchants repay — expand beyond one merchant

Digital B2B platformTraceable cash flows.

Inventory-backed loansReduces default risk.

Necessities, not luxuriesDemand holds in downturns.

Government policy supportVAT exemption on LPG · 5M-household clean energy target by 2030.

Diversify — don't rely on one

Uwana Energy₦26.2M in Q2, but 33% default (3/9 loans) — pause scaling until quality review.

Single-account dependencyIs a product limit decision, not just a monitoring note.

Onboard 2–3 moreSolar distribution, LPG last-mile, mini-grid.

Hold volumeWithout concentration risk.

3-point screen: before any new energy merchant gets their first loan

1

Digital & Traceable

Can we see transaction flow? Bank statements, POS data, or platform logs. No visibility = no loan.

2

B2B Revenue Mix

B2B revenue gives predictable, contract-backed income — much safer than consumer sales.

3

Loan Tied to Inventory

Loan purpose = stock purchase. Inventory sold → revenue → repayment. Same model that has kept Synafare clean.

Suggested merchants to onboard

Also watch: Rensource Energy (₦3B–₦6B float) · Daystar Power ($87.5M raised) · GAS360 Nigeria (seeking an institutional lender).

Arnergy Solar Highest Priority

B2B solar · 1,800 systems · 35 states · $30M raised (BII / Norfund)

Loan use: solar panel & battery inventory pre-purchase ahead of confirmed client deployments.
Revenue: monthly lease-to-own from SMEs, hospitals & schools — Naira revenue quadrupling in 2025.
Fit: actively seeking local debt from Nigerian banks & DFIs — SeedFi fits this gap directly.

Digital & traceable · Inventory-backed · B2B revenue mix

Gas Terminalling (LiteGas) Strong Fit

LPG bulk distribution · 4 depot hubs · 18-year track record · B2B contracts

Loan use: LPG depot stock financing ahead of bulk distribution cycles.
Revenue: recurring B2B contracts with beverage companies, industrial users & hotels.
Fit: most Synafare-equivalent profile in the pipeline — same repayment model, multi-hub scale.